Investigating harms of testing for ovarian cancer - psychological outcomes and cancer conversion rates in women with symptoms of ovarian cancer: A cohort study embedded in the multicentre ROCkeTS prospective diagnostic study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate psychological correlates in women referred with suspected ovarian cancer via the fast-track pathway, explore how anxiety and distress levels change at 12 months post-testing, and report cancer conversion rates by age and referral pathway. DESIGN: Single-arm prospective cohort study. SETTING: Multicentre. Secondary care including outpatient clinics and emergency admissions. POPULATION: A cohort of 2596 newly presenting symptomatic women with a raised CA125 level, abnormal imaging or both. METHODS: Women completed anxiety and distress questionnaires at recruitment and at 12 months for those who had not undergone surgery or a biopsy within 3 months of recruitment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anxiety and distress levels measured using a six-item short form of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-6) and the Impact of Event Scale - Revised (IES-r) questionnaire. Ovarian cancer (OC) conversion rates by age, menopausal status and referral pathway. RESULTS: Overall, 1355/2596 (52.1%) and 1781/2596 (68.6%) experienced moderate-to-severe distress and anxiety, respectively, at recruitment. Younger age and emergency presentations had higher distress levels. The clinical category for anxiety and distress remained unchanged/worsened in 76% of respondents at 12 months, despite a non-cancer diagnosis. The OC rates by age were 1.6% (95% CI 0.5%-5.9%) for age <40 years and 10.9% (95% CI 8.7%-13.6%) for age ≥40 years. In women referred through fast-track pathways, 3.3% (95% CI 1.9%-5.7%) of pre- and 18.5% (95% CI 16.1%-21.0%) of postmenopausal women were diagnosed with OC. CONCLUSIONS: Women undergoing diagnostic testing display severe anxiety and distress. Younger women are especially vulnerable and should be targeted for support. Women under the age of 40 years have low conversion rates and we advocate reducing testing in this group to reduce the harms of testing.

Diagnostic performance of sonographic activity scores for adult terminal ileal Crohn's disease compared to magnetic resonance and histological reference standards: experience from the METRIC trial.

OBJECTIVES: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) are promising intestinal ultrasound (IUS) indices of CD, but studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. We compared SUS-CD and BUSS against histological and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) reference standards in a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicentre, multireader trial. METHODS: Participants recruited to the METRIC trial (ISRCTN03982913) were studied, including those with available terminal ileal (TI) biopsies. Sensitivity and specificity of SUS-CD and BUSS for TI CD activity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), from the prospective observations of the original METRIC trial sonographers against the histological activity index (HAI) and the simplified magnetic resonance index of activity (sMARIA). RESULTS: We included 284 patients (median 31.5 years, IQR 23-46) from 8 centres, who underwent IUS and MRE. Of these, 111 patients had available terminal ileal biopsies with HAI scoring. Against histology, sensitivity and specificity for active disease were 79% (95% CI 69-86%) and 50% (31-69%) for SUS-CD, and 66% (56-75%) and 68% (47-84%) for BUSS, respectively. Compared to sMARIA, the sensitivity and specificity for active CD were 81% (74-86%) and 75% (66-83%) for SUS-CD, and 68% (61-74%) and 85% (76-91%) for BUSS, respectively. The sensitivity of SUS-CD was significantly greater than that of BUSS against HAI and sMARIA (p < 0.001), but its specificity was significantly lower than of BUSS against the MRE reference standard (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Particularly when compared to MRE activity scoring, SUS-CD and BUSS are promising tools in a real-world clinical setting. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: When tested using data from a multicentre, multireader diagnostic accuracy trial, the simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) were clinically viable intestinal ultrasound indices that were reasonably sensitive and specific for terminal ileal Crohn's disease, especially when compared to a magnetic resonance reference standard. KEY POINTS: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease and bowel ultrasound score are promising intestinal ultrasound indices of Crohn's disease but to date studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. Compared to histology and the magnetic resonance reference standard in a multicentre, multireader setting, the sensitivity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease is significantly greater than that of bowel ultrasound score. The specificity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease was significantly lower than that of bowel ultrasound score compared to the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard. The specificity of both indices was numerically higher when the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard was adopted.

Prognostic factors to identify resolution of small bowel obstruction without need for operative management: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To identify imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables potentially prognostic for surgical management of small bowel obstruction. METHODS: Two researchers systematically reviewed indexed literature 2001-2021 inclusive for imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables potentially predictive of surgical management of small bowl obstruction and/or ischaemia at surgery, where performed. Risk of bias was assessed. Contingency tables for variables reported in at least 5 studies were extracted and meta-analysed to identify strong evidence of association with clinical outcomes, across studies. RESULTS: Thirty-one studies were ultimately included, reporting 4638 patients (44 to 313 per study). 11 (35%) studies raised no risk of bias concerns. CT was the modality reported most (29 studies, 94%). Meta-analysis of 21 predictors identified 5 strongly associated with surgical intervention, 3 derived from CT (peritoneal free fluid, odds ratio [OR] 3.24, 95%CI 2.45 to 4.29; high grade obstruction, OR 3.58, 95%CI 2.46 to 5.20; mesenteric inflammation, OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.94 to 3.50; abdominal distension, OR 2.43, 95%CI 1.34 to 4.42; peritonism, OR 3.97, 95%CI 2.67 to 5.90) and one with conservative management (previous abdominopelvic surgery, OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.85). Meta-analysis of 10 predictors identified 3 strongly associated with ischaemia at surgery, 2 derived from CT (peritoneal free fluid, OR 3.49, 95%CI 2.28 to 5.35; bowel thickening, OR 3.26 95%CI 1.91 to 5.55; white cell count, OR 4.76, 95%CI 2.71 to 8.36). CONCLUSIONS: Systematic review of patients with small bowel obstruction identified four imaging, three clinical, and one laboratory predictors associated strongly with surgical intervention and/or ischaemia at surgery. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Via systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified imaging, clinical, and laboratory predictors strongly associated with surgical management of small bowel obstruction and/or ischaemia. Multivariable model development to guide management should incorporate these since they display strong evidence of potential utility. KEY POINTS: • While multivariable models incorporating clinical, laboratory, and imaging factors could predict surgical management of small bowel obstruction, none are used widely. • Via systematic review and meta-analysis we identified imaging, clinical, and laboratory variables strongly associated with surgical management and/or ischaemia at surgery. • Development of multivariable models to guide management should incorporate these predictors, notably CT scanning, since they display strong evidence of potential utility.

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care. DESIGN: (1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives. DATA SOURCES: For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used. REVIEW METHODS: For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed. RESULTS: People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia). FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Around 1 in 100 people in the UK has coeliac disease. It develops when the immune system attacks the lining of the gut after eating gluten. It is thought that only one in three people with coeliac disease is currently diagnosed. Without treatment, people with coeliac disease are at an increased risk of anaemia, osteoporosis and cancer. Treatment is a lifelong gluten-free diet. Diagnosing coeliac disease is difficult. Some people have minimal or non-specific symptoms, such as pain, indigestion or bloating, so knowing who to test is tricky. WHAT DID WE DO?: We wanted to establish who should be tested for coeliac disease, what tests should be used and whether or not invasive testing (a gut biopsy) is necessary for everyone. We looked at existing studies and data from general practices, and conducted an online survey, and brought everything together in an economic (cost) analysis. WHAT DID WE FIND?: Using individual symptoms is not helpful to identify people who may have coeliac disease. People with coeliac disease are more likely to have a combination of symptoms. People with anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, thyroid disorders, immunoglobulin A deficiency, Down syndrome, Turner syndrome or a family history of coeliac disease are more likely to have coeliac disease and should be offered tests. Common blood tests for coeliac disease are very accurate, particularly when used in combination with genetic testing. Blood tests alone can be used for diagnosis for some people. Others will need a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis. Whether or not this is needed depends on their risk of coeliac disease: whether or not they have symptoms and whether or not they have a condition that puts them at higher risk. Shared decision-making is important for individuals considering an invasive test, depending on how certain they want to be about their diagnosis before starting a gluten-free diet.

METRIC-EF: magnetic resonance enterography to predict disabling disease in newly diagnosed Crohn's disease-protocol for a multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Crohn's disease (CD) is characterised by discontinuous, relapsing enteric inflammation. Instituting advanced therapies at an early stage to suppress inflammation aims to prevent future complications such as stricturing or penetrating disease, and subsequent surgical resection. Therapeutics are effective but associated with certain side-effects and relatively expensive. There is therefore an urgent need for robust methods to predict which newly diagnosed patients will develop disabling disease, to identify patients who are most likely to benefit from early, advanced therapies. We aim to determine if magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) features at diagnosis improve prediction of disabling CD within 5 years of diagnosis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We describe the protocol for a multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective study of adult patients with newly diagnosed CD. We will use patients already recruited to the METRIC study and extend their clinical follow-up, as well as a separate group of newly diagnosed patients who were not part of the METRIC trial (MRE within 3 months of diagnosis), to ensure an adequate sample size. Follow-up will extend for at least 4 years. The primary outcome is to evaluate the comparative predictive ability of prognostic models incorporating MRE severity scores (Magnetic resonance Enterography Global Score (MEGS), simplified MAgnetic Resonance Index of Activity (sMaRIA) and Lémann Index) versus models using standard characteristics alone to predict disabling CD (modified Beaugerie definition) within 5 years of new diagnosis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol achieved National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (NHS REC), London-Hampstead Research Ethics Committee approval (IRAS 217422). Our findings will be disseminated via conference presentations and peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN76899103.

Diagnostic Models Combining Clinical Information, Ultrasound and Biochemical Markers for Ovarian Cancer: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Ovarian cancer (OC) is a diagnostic challenge, with the majority diagnosed at late stages. Existing systematic reviews of diagnostic models either use inappropriate meta-analytic methods or do not conduct statistical comparisons of models or stratify test performance by menopausal status. Methods: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CDSR, DARE, Health Technology Assessment Database and SCI Science Citation Index, trials registers, conference proceedings from 1991 to June 2019. Cochrane collaboration review methods included QUADAS-2 quality assessment and meta-analysis using hierarchical modelling. RMI, ROMA or ADNEX at any test positivity threshold were investigated. Histology or clinical follow-up was the reference standard. We excluded screening studies, studies restricted to pregnancy, recurrent or metastatic OC. 2 × 2 diagnostic tables were extracted separately for pre- and post-menopausal women. Results: We included 58 studies (30,121 patients, 9061 cases of ovarian cancer). Prevalence of OC ranged from 16 to 55% in studies. For premenopausal women, ROMA at a threshold of 13.1 (+/−2) and ADNEX at a threshold of 10% demonstrated significantly higher sensitivity compared to RMI I at 200 (p < 0.0001) 77.8 (72.5, 82.4), 94.9 (92.5, 96.6), and 57.1% (50.6 to 63.4) but lower specificity (p < 0.002), 92.5 (90.0, 94.4), 84.3 (81.3, 86.8), and 78.2 (75.8, 80.4). For postmenopausal women, ROMA at a threshold of 27.7 (+/−2) and AdNEX at a threshold of 10% demonstrated significantly higher sensitivity compared to RMI I at a threshold of 200 (p < 0.001) 90.4 (87.4, 92.7), 97.6 (96.2, 98.5), and 78.7 (74.3, 82.5), specificity of ROMA was comparable, whilst ADneX was lower, 85.5 (81.3, 88.9), 81.3 (76.9, 85.0) (p = 0.155), compared to RMI 55.2 (51.2, 59.1) (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In pre-menopausal women, ROMA and ADNEX offer significantly higher sensitivity but significantly decreased specificity. In post-menopausal women, ROMA demonstrates significantly higher sensitivity and comparable specificity to RMI I, ADNEX has the highest sensitivity of all models, but with significantly reduced specificity. RMI I has poor sensitivity compared to ROMA or ADNEX. Choice between ROMA and ADNEX as a replacement test will depend on cost effectiveness and resource implications.

Menopausal status, ultrasound and biomarker tests in combination for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in symptomatic women.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) has the highest case fatality rate of all gynaecological cancers. Diagnostic delays are caused by non-specific symptoms. Existing systematic reviews have not comprehensively covered tests in current practice, not estimated accuracy separately in pre- and postmenopausal women, or used inappropriate meta-analytic methods. OBJECTIVES: To establish the accuracy of combinations of menopausal status, ultrasound scan (USS) and biomarkers for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in pre- and postmenopausal women and compare the accuracy of different test combinations. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), five other databases and three trial registries from 1991 to 2015 and MEDLINE (Ovid) and Embase (Ovid) form June 2015 to June 2019. We also searched conference proceedings from the European Society of Gynaecological Oncology, International Gynecologic Cancer Society, American Society of Clinical Oncology and Society of Gynecologic Oncology, ZETOC and Conference Proceedings Citation Index (Web of Knowledge). We searched reference lists of included studies and published systematic reviews. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included cross-sectional diagnostic test accuracy studies evaluating single tests or comparing two or more tests, randomised trials comparing two or more tests, and studies validating multivariable models for the diagnosis of OC investigating test combinations, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow-up in women with a pelvic mass (detected clinically or through USS) suspicious for OC. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed quality using QUADAS-2. We used the bivariate hierarchical model to indirectly compare tests at commonly reported thresholds in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. We indirectly compared tests across all thresholds and estimated sensitivity at fixed specificities of 80% and 90% by fitting hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) models in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. MAIN RESULTS: We included 59 studies (32,059 women, 9545 cases of OC). Two tests evaluated the accuracy of a combination of menopausal status and USS findings (IOTA Logistic Regression Model 2 (LR2) and the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa model (ADNEX)); one test evaluated the accuracy of a combination of menopausal status, USS findings and serum biomarker CA125 (Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI)); and one test evaluated the accuracy of a combination of menopausal status and two serum biomarkers (CA125 and HE4) (Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA)). Most studies were at high or unclear risk of bias in participant, reference standard, and flow and timing domains. All studies were in hospital settings. Prevalence was 16% (RMI, ROMA), 22% (LR2) and 27% (ADNEX) in premenopausal women and 38% (RMI), 45% (ROMA), 52% (LR2) and 55% (ADNEX) in postmenopausal women. The prevalence of OC in the studies was considerably higher than would be expected in symptomatic women presenting in community-based settings, or in women referred from the community to hospital with a suspicion of OC. Studies were at high or unclear applicability because presenting features were not reported, or USS was performed by experienced ultrasonographers for RMI, LR2 and ADNEX. The higher sensitivity and lower specificity observed in postmenopausal compared to premenopausal women across all index tests and at all thresholds may reflect highly selected patient cohorts in the included studies. In premenopausal women, ROMA at a threshold of 13.1 (± 2), LR2 at a threshold to achieve a post-test probability of OC of 10% and ADNEX (post-test probability 10%) demonstrated a higher sensitivity (ROMA: 77.4%, 95% CI 72.7% to 81.5%; LR2: 83.3%, 95% CI 74.7% to 89.5%; ADNEX: 95.5%, 95% CI 91.0% to 97.8%) compared to RMI (57.2%, 95% CI 50.3% to 63.8%). The specificity of ROMA and ADNEX were lower in premenopausal women (ROMA: 84.3%, 95% CI 81.2% to 87.0%; ADNEX: 77.8%, 95% CI 67.4% to 85.5%) compared to RMI 92.5% (95% CI 90.3% to 94.2%). The specificity of LR2 was comparable to RMI (90.4%, 95% CI 84.6% to 94.1%). In postmenopausal women, ROMA at a threshold of 27.7 (± 2), LR2 (post-test probability 10%) and ADNEX (post-test probability 10%) demonstrated a higher sensitivity (ROMA: 90.3%, 95% CI 87.5% to 92.6%; LR2: 94.8%, 95% CI 92.3% to 96.6%; ADNEX: 97.6%, 95% CI 95.6% to 98.7%) compared to RMI (78.4%, 95% CI 74.6% to 81.7%). Specificity of ROMA at a threshold of 27.7 (± 2) (81.5, 95% CI 76.5% to 85.5%) was comparable to RMI (85.4%, 95% CI 82.0% to 88.2%), whereas for LR2 (post-test probability 10%) and ADNEX (post-test probability 10%) specificity was lower (LR2: 60.6%, 95% CI 50.5% to 69.9%; ADNEX: 55.0%, 95% CI 42.8% to 66.6%). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In specialist healthcare settings in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, RMI has poor sensitivity. In premenopausal women, ROMA, LR2 and ADNEX offer better sensitivity (fewer missed cancers), but for ROMA and ADNEX this is off-set by a decrease in specificity and increase in false positives. In postmenopausal women, ROMA demonstrates a higher sensitivity and comparable specificity to RMI. ADNEX has the highest sensitivity in postmenopausal women, but reduced specificity. The prevalence of OC in included studies is representative of a highly selected referred population, rather than a population in whom referral is being considered. The comparative accuracy of tests observed here may not be transferable to non-specialist settings. Ultimately health systems need to balance accuracy and resource implications to identify the most suitable test.

Imaging features for the prediction of clinical endpoints in chronic liver disease: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic liver disease is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality in the UK. Acute presentation with advanced disease is common and prioritisation of resources to those at highest risk at earlier disease stages is essential to improving patient outcomes. Existing prognostic tools are of limited accuracy and to date no imaging-based tools are used in clinical practice, despite multiple anatomical imaging features that worsen with disease severity.In this paper, we outline our scoping review protocol that aims to provide an overview of existing prognostic factors and models that link anatomical imaging features with clinical endpoints in chronic liver disease. This will provide a summary of the number, type and methods used by existing imaging feature-based prognostic studies and indicate if there are sufficient studies to justify future systematic reviews. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The protocol was developed in accordance with existing scoping review guidelines. Searches of MEDLINE and Embase will be conducted using titles, abstracts and Medical Subject Headings restricted to publications after 1980 to ensure imaging method relevance on OvidSP. Initial screening will be undertaken by two independent reviewers. Full-text data extraction will be undertaken by three pretrained reviewers who have participated in a group data extraction session to ensure reviewer consensus and reduce inter-rater variability. Where needed, data extraction queries will be resolved by reviewer team discussion. Reporting of results will be based on grouping of related factors and their cumulative frequencies. Prognostic anatomical imaging features and clinical endpoints will be reported using descriptive statistics to summarise the number of studies, study characteristics and the statistical methods used. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as this study is based on previously published work. Findings will be disseminated by peer-reviewed publication and/or conference presentations.

Diagnostic Performance of Magnetic Resonance Enterography Disease Activity Indices Compared with a Histological Reference Standard for Adult Terminal Ileal Crohn's Disease: Experience from the METRIC Trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The simplified magnetic resonance enterography [MRE] index of activity [sMARIA], London, and 'extended' London, scoring systems are widely used in Crohn's disease [CD] to assess disease activity, although validation studies have usually been single-centre, retrospective, and/or used few readers. Here, we evaluated these MRE indices within a prospective, multicentre, multireader, diagnostic accuracy trial. METHODS: A subset of participants [newly diagnosed or suspected of relapse] recruited to the METRIC trial with available terminal ileal [TI] biopsies was included. Using pre-specified thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of sMARIA, London, and 'extended' London scores for active and severe [sMARIA] TI CD were calculated using different thresholds for the histological activity index [HAI]. RESULTS: We studied 111 patients [median age 29 years, interquartile range 21-41, 75 newly diagnosed, 36 suspected relapse] from seven centres, of whom 22 had no active TI CD [HAI = 0], 39 mild [HAI = 1], 13 moderate [HAI = 2], and 37 severe CD activity [HAI = 3]. In total, 26 radiologists prospectively scored MRE datasets as per their usual clinical practice. Sensitivity and specificity for active disease [HAI >0] were 83% [95% confidence interval 74% to 90%] and 41% [23% to 61%] for sMARIA, 76% [67% to 84%] and 64% [43% to 80%] for the London score, and 81% [72% to 88%] and 41% [23% to 61%] for the 'extended' London score, respectively. The sMARIA had 84% [69-92%] sensitivity and 53% [41-64%] specificity for severe CD. CONCLUSIONS: When tested at their proposed cut-offs in a real-world setting, sMARIA, London, and 'extended' London indices achieve high sensitivity for active TI disease against a histological reference standard, but specificity is low.

Are preoperative CT variables associated with the success or failure of subsequent ventral hernia repair: nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Systematic review of CT measurements to predict the success or failure of subsequent ventral hernia repair has found limited data available in the indexed literature. To rectify this, we investigated multiple preoperative CT metrics to identify if any were associated with postoperative reherniation. METHODS: Following ethical permission, we identified patients who had undergone ventral hernia repair and had preoperative CT scanning available. Two radiologists made multiple measurements of the hernia and abdominal musculature from these scans, including loss of domain. Patients were divided subsequently into two groups, defined by hernia recurrence at 1-year subsequent to surgery. Hypothesis testing investigated any differences between CT measurements from each group. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-eight patients (95 male) were identified, 34 (18%) whose hernia had recurred by 1-year. Only three of 34 CT measurements were significantly different when patients whose hernia had recurred were compared to those who had not; these significant findings were assumed contingent on multiple testing. In particular, preoperative hernia volume (recurrence 155.3 cc [IQR 355.65] vs. no recurrence 78.2 [IQR 303.52], p = 0.26) nor loss of domain, whether calculated using the Tanaka (recurrence 0.02 [0.04] vs. no recurrence 0.009 [0.04], p = 0.33) or Sabbagh (recurrence 0.019 [0.05] vs. no recurrence 0.009 [0.04], p = 0.25) methods, differed between significantly between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative CT measurements of ventral hernia morphology, including loss of domain, appear unrelated to postoperative recurrence. It is likely that the importance of such measurements to predict recurrence is outweighed by other patient factors and surgical reconstruction technique. KEY POINTS: • Preoperative CT scanning is often performed for ventral hernia but systematic review revealed little data regarding whether CT variables predict postoperative reherniation. • We found that the large majority of CT measurements, including loss of domain, did not differ significantly between patients whose hernia did and did not recur. • It is likely that the importance of CT measurements to predict recurrence is outweighed by other patient factors and surgical reconstruction technique.

Influence of oral contrast type and volume on patient experience and quality of luminal distension at MR Enterography in Crohn's disease: an observational study of patients recruited to the METRIC trial.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the distention quality and patient experience of oral mannitol and polyethylene glycol (PEG) for MRE. METHODS: This study is a retrospective, observational study of a subset of patients enrolled in a multicentre, prospective trial evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of MRE for small bowel Crohn's. Overall and segmental MRE small bowel distention, from 105 patients (64 F, mean age 37) was scored from 0 = poor to 4 = excellent by two experienced observers (68 [65%] mannitol and 37 [35%] PEG). Additionally, 130 patients (77 F, mean age 34) completed a questionnaire rating tolerability of various symptoms immediately and 2 days after MRE (85 [65%] receiving mannitol 45 [35%] receiving PEG). Distension was compared between agents and between those ingesting ≤ 1 L or > 1 L of mannitol using the test of proportions. Tolerability grades were collapsed into "very tolerable," "moderately tolerable," and "not tolerable." RESULTS: Per patient distension quality was similar between agents ("excellent" or "good" in 54% [37/68] versus 46% [17/37]) with mannitol and PEG respectively. Jejunal distension was significantly better with mannitol compared to PEG (40% [27/68] versus 14% [5/37] rated as excellent or good respectively). There was no significant difference according to the volume of mannitol ingested. Symptom tolerability was comparable between agents, although fullness following MRE was graded as "very tolerable" in 27% (12/45) of patients ingesting PEG, verses 44% (37/84) ingesting mannitol, difference 17% (95% CI 0.6 to 34%). CONCLUSION: Mannitol-based solutions and PEG generally achieve comparable distension quality and side effect profiles, although jejunal distension is better quality with mannitol. Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol. KEY POINTS: • Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents generally achieve comparable distension quality for MRE with the exception of the jejunum which is better distended with mannitol. • Mannitol-based and PEG-based oral preparation agents used for MRE have similar side effect profiles. • Neither distension quality nor side-effect profile is altered by ingestion of more than 1 L of mannitol.

Interobserver variation in the interpretation of magnetic resonance enterography in Crohn's disease.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate interobserver variability for diagnosis of disease presence and extent of small bowel and colonic Crohn's disease using MR enterography (MRE). METHODS: Data from the first 73 consecutive patients (mean age 32, 33F, 28 new diagnosis, 45 suspected relapse) recruited to a multicentre, prospective diagnostic accuracy trial evaluating MRE for small bowel Crohn's disease were each read independently by three (from a pool of 20) radiologists. Radiologists documented presence and segmental location of small bowel Crohn's disease and recorded morphological mural/extramural parameters for involved segments. Per patient percentage agreement for disease presence and extent were calculated against an outcome-based construct reference standard (averaged between pairs of readers). Prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted κ (PABAK) was calculated. RESULTS: Agreement for small bowel disease presence for new diagnosis/relapsed patients was 68%(κ = 0.36)/ 78% (κ = 0.56) and 43%(κ = 0.14)/ 53% for disease extent (κ = 0.07), respectively. For disease presence, all three radiologists agreed correctly with the reference standard in 41/59 (69%) of patients with small bowel involvement, and in 8/14 (57%) cases of without small bowel disease. Agreement was highest for multisegment disease, greater than 5 cm in length, with mural thickness>6 mm, and increased mural T2 signal. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 61% (κ = 0.21 fair agreement) for new diagnosis/ 60% (κ = 0.20, slight agreement) for relapsed patients. CONCLUSION: There is a reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed Crohn's disease, and patients with suspected relapse, respectively. Agreement is lower for disease extent. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: There is reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed (68%) Crohn's disease, and patients with suspected relapse (78%). Agreement is lower for disease extent (43% new diagnosis and 53% suspected relapse).

Diagnostic Accuracy of Abbreviated Bi-Parametric MRI (a-bpMRI) for Prostate Cancer Detection and Screening: A Multi-Reader Study.

(1) Background: There is currently limited evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of abbreviated biparametric MRI (a-bpMRI) protocols for prostate cancer (PCa) detection and screening. In the present study, we aim to investigate the performance of a-bpMRI among multiple readers and its potential application to an imaging-based screening setting. (2) Methods: A total of 151 men who underwent 3T multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) of the prostate and transperineal template prostate mapping biopsies were retrospectively selected. Corresponding bpMRI (multiplanar T2WI, DWI, ADC maps) and a-bpMRI (axial T2WI and b 2000 s/mm2 DWI only) dataset were derived from mpMRI. Three experienced radiologists scored a-bpMRI, standard biparametric MRI (bpMRI) and mpMRI in separate sessions. Diagnostic accuracy and interreader agreement of a-bpMRI was tested for different positivity thresholds and compared to bpMRI and mpMRI. Predictive values of a-bpMRI were computed for lower levels of PCa prevalence to simulate a screening setting. The primary definition of clinically significant PCa (csPCa) was Gleason ≥ 4 + 3, or cancer core length ≥ 6 mm. (3) Results: The median age was 62 years, the median PSA was 6.8 ng/mL, and the csPCa prevalence was 40%. Using a cut off of MRI score ≥ 3, the sensitivity and specificity of a-bpMRI were 92% and 48%, respectively. There was no significant difference in sensitivity compared to bpMRI and mpMRI. Interreader agreement of a-bpMRI was moderate (AC1 0.58). For a low prevalence of csPCa (e.g., <10%), higher cut offs (MRI score ≥ 4) yield a more favourable balance between the predictive values and positivity rate of MRI. (4) Conclusion: Abbreviated bpMRI protocols could match the diagnostic accuracy of bpMRI and mpMRI for the detection of csPCa. If a-bpMRI is used in low-prevalence settings, higher cut-offs for MRI positivity should be prioritised.

Artificial Intelligence Compared to Radiologists for the Initial Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer on Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Systematic Review and Recommendations for Future Studies.

Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) of prostate cancer on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), using artificial intelligence (AI), may reduce missed cancers and unnecessary biopsies, increase inter-observer agreement between radiologists, and alleviate pressures caused by rising case incidence and a shortage of specialist radiologists to read prostate mpMRI. However, well-designed evaluation studies are required to prove efficacy above current clinical practice. A systematic search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and arXiv electronic databases was conducted for studies that compared CAD for prostate cancer detection or classification on MRI against radiologist interpretation and a histopathological reference standard, in treatment-naïve men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer. Twenty-seven studies were included in the final analysis. Due to substantial heterogeneities in the included studies, a narrative synthesis is presented. Several studies reported superior diagnostic accuracy for CAD over radiologist interpretation on small, internal patient datasets, though this was not observed in the few studies that performed evaluation using external patient data. Our review found insufficient evidence to suggest the clinical deployment of artificial intelligence algorithms at present. Further work is needed to develop and enforce methodological standards, promote access to large diverse datasets, and conduct prospective evaluations before clinical adoption can be considered.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard. OBJECTIVE: To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease. DESIGN: This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies). DATA SOURCES: PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018. REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios. RESULTS: In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively). LIMITATIONS: Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability. FUTURE WORK: We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Crohn's disease causes inflammation of the intestines. Traditional treatment uses drugs, such as steroids, at a gradually increasing dose as symptoms worsen. Newer 'biological' drugs may stop disease, but are not used as an early treatment because they are expensive and have serious side effects. Using biologicals early means knowing which patients will develop severe disease in the future. A 'prognostic biomarker' is a measurement made on a patient that predicts a future outcome. A lot of research has attempted to identify biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease, but research is haphazard and of variable quality. We therefore carried out a 'systematic review', which identifies research in a comprehensive and unbiased fashion. We found nearly 30,000 research papers, 71 of which were acceptable quality and described 56 groups of Crohn's disease patients. We then used a statistical method called 'meta-analysis' to combine results from multiple studies. This allowed us to identify the most promising biomarkers to predict future severe disease. We found five clinical biomarkers (e.g. age and smoking), two blood biomarkers and one genetic biomarker that seemed reasonably able to predict future severe Crohn's disease. However, we also found that most research was poorly performed and frequently confused diagnosis (current disease) with prognosis (future disease). Some commonly used biomarkers were not sufficiently investigated. We were surprised to identify so few prognostic biomarkers in the face of a seemingly vast amount of research. Future research should be better conducted and not confuse diagnosis with prognosis. We will use statistical methods to combine the promising biomarkers that we identified into a 'prognostic model', which is a mathematical formula that provides the likelihood of developing severe disease in the future. We will then test how well this works by using patient data from existing Crohn's disease databases.

Test evaluation trials present different challenges for trial managers compared to intervention trials.

INTRODUCTION: Test evaluation trials present different challenges for trial managers compared to intervention trials. There has been very little research on the management of test evaluation trials and how this impacts on trial success, in comparison with intervention trials. Evaluations of medical tests present specific challenges, because they are a pivot point bridging the complexities of pathways prompting testing with treatment decision-making. We systematically explored key differences in the trial design and management of test evaluation trials compared to intervention trials at the different stages of study design and delivery. We identified challenges in test evaluation trials that were more pronounced than in intervention trials, based on experience from 10 test evaluation trials. METHODS: We formed a focus group of 7 trial managers and a statistician who had been involved in the day-to-day management of both test evaluation trials and intervention trials. We used discussion and content analysis to group challenges from 10 trials into a structured thematic format. The trials covered a range of medical conditions, diagnostic tests, clinical pathways and conditions including chronic kidney disease, chronic pelvic pain, colitis, detrusor over-activity, group B streptococcal colonisation, tuberculosis and colorectal, lung, ovarian and thyroid cancers. RESULTS: We identified 10 common themes underlying challenges that are more pronounced in test evaluation compared to intervention trials. We illustrate these themes with examples from 10 trials, including with 31 specific challenges we experienced. The themes were ethics/governance; accessing patient populations; recruitment; patient preference; test processes, clinical pathways and samples storage; uncertainty of diagnostic results; verifying diagnosis (reference standard); follow-up; adverse effects; and diagnostic impact. CONCLUSION: We present 10 common themes, including 31 challenges, in test evaluation trials that will be helpful to others designing and managing future test evaluation trials. Proactive identification of potential challenges at the design and planning stages of test evaluation trials will enable strategies to improve trial design and management that may be different from standard strategies used for intervention trials. Future work could extend this topic to include challenges for other trial stakeholders including participants, clinicians, statisticians and funders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: All trials reviewed in this project were registered and are provided in Table 1.

Magnetic resonance enterography compared with ultrasonography in newly diagnosed and relapsing Crohn's disease patients: the METRIC diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance enterography and enteric ultrasonography are used to image Crohn's disease patients. Their diagnostic accuracy for presence, extent and activity of enteric Crohn's disease was compared. OBJECTIVE: To compare diagnostic accuracy, observer variability, acceptability, diagnostic impact and cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography in newly diagnosed or relapsing Crohn's disease. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre cohort study. SETTING: Eight NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive participants aged ≥ 16 years, newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease or with established Crohn's disease and suspected relapse. INTERVENTIONS: Magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was per-participant sensitivity difference between magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography for small bowel Crohn's disease extent. Secondary outcomes included sensitivity and specificity for small bowel Crohn's disease and colonic Crohn's disease extent, and sensitivity and specificity for small bowel Crohn's disease and colonic Crohn's disease presence; identification of active disease; interobserver variation; participant acceptability; diagnostic impact; and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Out of the 518 participants assessed, 335 entered the trial, with 51 excluded, giving a final cohort of 284 (133 and 151 in new diagnosis and suspected relapse cohorts, respectively). Across the whole cohort, for small bowel Crohn's disease extent, magnetic resonance enterography sensitivity [80%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72% to 86%] was significantly greater than ultrasonography sensitivity (70%, 95% CI 62% to 78%), with a 10% difference (95% CI 1% to 18%; p = 0.027). For small bowel Crohn's disease extent, magnetic resonance enterography specificity (95%, 95% CI 85% to 98%) was significantly greater than ultrasonography specificity (81%, 95% CI 64% to 91%), with a 14% difference (95% CI 1% to 27%). For small bowel Crohn's disease presence, magnetic resonance enterography sensitivity (97%, 95% CI 91% to 99%) was significantly greater than ultrasonography sensitivity (92%, 95% CI 84% to 96%), with a 5% difference (95% CI 1% to 9%). For small bowel Crohn's disease presence, magnetic resonance enterography specificity was 96% (95% CI 86% to 99%) and ultrasonography specificity was 84% (95% CI 65% to 94%), with a 12% difference (95% CI 0% to 25%). Test sensitivities for small bowel Crohn's disease presence and extent were similar in the two cohorts. For colonic Crohn's disease presence in newly diagnosed participants, ultrasonography sensitivity (67%, 95% CI 49% to 81%) was significantly greater than magnetic resonance enterography sensitivity (47%, 95% CI 31% to 64%), with a 20% difference (95% CI 1% to 39%). For active small bowel Crohn's disease, magnetic resonance enterography sensitivity (96%, 95% CI 92% to 99%) was significantly greater than ultrasonography sensitivity (90%, 95% CI 82% to 95%), with a 6% difference (95% CI 2% to 11%). There was some disagreement between readers for both tests. A total of 88% of participants rated magnetic resonance enterography as very or fairly acceptable, which is significantly lower than the percentage (99%) of participants who did so for ultrasonography. Therapeutic decisions based on magnetic resonance enterography alone and ultrasonography alone agreed with the final decision in 122 out of 158 (77%) cases and 124 out of 158 (78%) cases, respectively. There were no differences in costs or quality-adjusted life-years between tests. LIMITATIONS: Magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography scans were interpreted by practitioners blinded to clinical data (but not participant cohort), which does not reflect use in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Magnetic resonance enterography has higher accuracy for detecting the presence, extent and activity of small bowel Crohn's disease than ultrasonography does. Both tests have variable interobserver agreement and are broadly acceptable to participants, although ultrasonography produces less participant burden. Diagnostic impact and cost-effectiveness are similar. Recommendations for future work include investigation of the comparative utility of magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography for treatment response assessment and investigation of non-specific abdominal symptoms to confirm or refute Crohn's disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03982913. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Crohn's disease is a waxing and waning lifelong inflammatory condition that affects the colon (large bowel) and small bowel. Treatment relies on accurately determining disease extent and underlying inflammation. Colonoscopy is very good for examining the colon, but it is invasive and, at best, can only visualise a few centimetres of the small bowel, so radiological imaging is very important. Magnetic resonance enterography (a type of magnetic resonance imaging scan) and ultrasonography are both radiological tests commonly performed in the NHS, and it is unclear which method is better. We performed a study to compare the accuracy of magnetic resonance enterography and ultrasonography for determining the extent of Crohn's disease in the bowel of participants newly diagnosed and in those participants with established Crohn's disease but with suspected deterioration. We also investigated how often radiologists agree with each other during test interpretation, the participant experience of undergoing the tests and their cost-effectiveness. We compared the tests in 284 participants (133 newly diagnosed and 151 with suspected deterioration). We found that both tests were accurate for detecting the presence (97% for magnetic resonance enterography and 92% for ultrasonography) and location (80% for magnetic resonance enterography and 70% for ultrasonography) of disease in the small bowel, but magnetic resonance enterography was better than ultrasonography for both (correctly classifying disease extent in 107 more participants for every 1000 participants with Crohn's disease). Magnetic resonance enterography was similarly better than ultrasonography at determining if the bowel was inflamed. The results were similar in newly diagnosed participants and those participants with suspected deterioration. Agreement between radiologists interpreting the same images was, at best, moderate for both tests. A total of 88% of participants tolerated magnetic resonance enterography well or fairly well, which was less than the percentage (99%) of participants who tolerated ultrasonography well or fairly well. Both tests had a similar effect on the treatment decisions made by doctors. Both tests were also similar in their value for money for the NHS.

Diagnostic accuracy of whole-body MRI versus standard imaging pathways for metastatic disease in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer: the prospective Streamline C trial.

BACKGROUND: Whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) could be an alternative to multimodality staging of colorectal cancer, but its diagnostic accuracy, effect on staging times, number of tests needed, cost, and effect on treatment decisions are unknown. We aimed to prospectively compare the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of WB-MRI-based staging pathways with standard pathways in colorectal cancer. METHODS: The Streamline C trial was a prospective, multicentre trial done in 16 hospitals in England. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer. Exclusion criteria were severe systemic disease, pregnancy, contraindications to MRI, or polyp cancer. Patients underwent WB-MRI, the result of which was withheld until standard staging investigations were complete and the first treatment decision made. The multidisciplinary team recorded its treatment decision based on standard investigations, then on the WB-MRI staging pathway (WB-MRI plus additional tests generated), and finally on all tests. The primary outcome was difference in per-patient sensitivity for metastases between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways against a consensus reference standard at 12 months, in the per-protocol population. Secondary outcomes were difference in per-patient specificity for metastatic disease detection between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways, differences in treatment decisions, staging efficiency (time taken, test number, and costs), and per-organ sensitivity and specificity for metastases and per-patient agreement for local T and N stage. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, number ISRCTN43958015, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between March 26, 2013, and Aug 19, 2016, 1020 patients were screened for eligibility. 370 patients were recruited, 299 of whom completed the trial; 68 (23%) had metastasis at baseline. Pathway sensitivity was 67% (95% CI 56 to 78) for WB-MRI and 63% (51 to 74) for standard pathways, a difference in sensitivity of 4% (-5 to 13, p=0·51). No adverse events related to imaging were reported. Specificity did not differ between WB-MRI (95% [95% CI 92-97]) and standard pathways (93% [90-96], p=0·48). Agreement with the multidisciplinary team's final treatment decision was 96% for WB-MRI and 95% for the standard pathway. Time to complete staging was shorter for WB-MRI (median, 8 days [IQR 6-9]) than for the standard pathway (13 days [11-15]); a 5-day (3-7) difference. WB-MRI required fewer tests (median, one [95% CI 1 to 1]) than did standard pathways (two [2 to 2]), a difference of one (1 to 1). Mean per-patient staging costs were £216 (95% CI 211-221) for WB-MRI and £285 (260-310) for standard pathways. INTERPRETATION: WB-MRI staging pathways have similar accuracy to standard pathways and reduce the number of tests needed, staging time, and cost. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research.

Diagnostic accuracy of whole-body MRI versus standard imaging pathways for metastatic disease in newly diagnosed non-small-cell lung cancer: the prospective Streamline L trial.

BACKGROUND: Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (WB-MRI) could be an alternative to multi-modality staging of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its diagnostic accuracy, effect on staging times, number of tests needed, cost, and effect on treatment decisions are unknown. We aimed to prospectively compare the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of WB-MRI-based staging pathways with standard pathways in NSCLC. METHODS: The Streamline L trial was a prospective, multicentre trial done in 16 hospitals in England. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, with newly diagnosed NSCLC that was potentially radically treatable on diagnostic chest CT (defined as stage IIIb or less). Exclusion criteria were severe systemic disease, pregnancy, contraindications to MRI, or histologies other than NSCLC. Patients underwent WB-MRI, the result of which was withheld until standard staging investigations were complete and the first treatment decision made. The multidisciplinary team recorded its treatment decision based on standard investigations, then on the WB-MRI staging pathway (WB-MRI plus additional tests generated), and finally on all tests. The primary outcome was difference in per-patient sensitivity for metastases between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways against a consensus reference standard at 12 months, in the per-protocol population. Secondary outcomes were difference in per-patient specificity for metastatic disease detection between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways, differences in treatment decisions, staging efficiency (time taken, test number, and costs) and per-organ sensitivity and specificity for metastases and per-patient agreement for local T and N stage. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, number ISRCTN50436483, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Feb 26, 2013, and Sept 5, 2016, 976 patients were screened for eligibility. 353 patients were recruited, 187 of whom completed the trial; 52 (28%) had metastasis at baseline. Pathway sensitivity was 50% (95% CI 37-63) for WB-MRI and 54% (41-67) for standard pathways, a difference of 4% (-7 to 15, p=0·73). No adverse events related to imaging were reported. Specificity did not differ between WB-MRI (93% [88-96]) and standard pathways (95% [91-98], p=0·45). Agreement with the multidisciplinary team's final treatment decision was 98% for WB-MRI and 99% for the standard pathway. Time to complete staging was shorter for WB-MRI (13 days [12-14]) than for the standard pathway (19 days [17-21]); a 6-day (4-8) difference. The number of tests required was similar WB-MRI (one [1-1]) and standard pathways (one [1-2]). Mean per-patient costs were £317 (273-361) for WBI-MRI and £620 (574-666) for standard pathways. INTERPRETATION: WB-MRI staging pathways have similar accuracy to standard pathways, and reduce the staging time and costs. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research.

Streamlining staging of lung and colorectal cancer with whole body MRI; study protocols for two multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective diagnostic accuracy studies (Streamline C and Streamline L).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Rapid and accurate cancer staging following diagnosis underpins patient management, in particular the identification of distant metastatic disease. Current staging guidelines recommend sequential deployment of various imaging platforms such as computerised tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) which can be time and resource intensive and onerous for patients. Recent studies demonstrate that whole body magnetic resonance Imaging (WB-MRI) may stage cancer efficiently in a single visit, with potentially greater accuracy than current staging investigations. The Streamline trials aim to evaluate whether WB-MRI increases per patient detection of metastases in non-small cell lung and colorectal cancer compared to standard staging pathways. METHODS: The Streamline trials are multicentre, non-randomised, single-arm, prospective diagnostic accuracy studies with a novel design to capture patient management decisions during staging pathways. The two trials recruit adult patients with proven or highly suspected new diagnosis of primary colorectal (Streamline C) or non-small cell lung cancer (Streamline L) referred for staging. Patients undergo WB-MRI in addition to standard staging investigations. Strict blinding protocols are enforced for those interpreting the imaging. A first major treatment decision is made by the multi-disciplinary team prior to WB-MRI revelation based on standard staging investigations only, then based on the WB-MRI and any additional tests precipitated by WB-MRI, and finally based on all available test results. The reference standard is derived by a multidisciplinary consensus panel who assess 12 months of follow-up data to adjudicate on the TNM stage at diagnosis. Health psychology assessment of patients' experiences of the cancer staging pathway will be undertaken via interviews and questionnaires. A cost (effectiveness) analysis of WB-MRI compared to standard staging pathways will be performed. DISCUSSION: We describe a novel approach to radiologist and clinician blinding to ascertain the 'true' diagnostic accuracy of differing imaging pathways and discuss our approach to assessing the impact of WB-MRI on clinical decision making in real-time. The Streamline trials will compare WB-MRI and standard imaging pathways in the same patients, thereby informing the most accurate and efficient approach to staging. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Streamline C ISRCTN43958015 (registered 25/7/2012). Streamline L ISRCTN50436483 (registered 31/7/2012).